Climate · Global warming

Climate and global warming

Warming is the forcing function beneath most of the index. The same fossil combustion that warms the planet emits the particulates that pollute the air — and the warming it drives intensifies heat, drought, sea-level rise and crop stress at once.

+1.3°C

global mean warming above pre-industrial, today

IPCC / NASA GISS

~420ppm

atmospheric CO₂ — highest in ~3 million years

NOAA

~40Gt

CO₂ emitted per year and still rising

Global Carbon Project

+2.7°C

projected warming on current policies by 2100

Climate Action Tracker

Climate explorer

3 views · warming · emissions · sea

Global mean warming above pre-industrial (°C)

History plus low (strong cuts), middle, and high (weak) emission paths.

Source: IPCC AR6 scenario ranges. The 1.5°C and 2°C lines mark the Paris thresholds.

Tipping elements

Beyond gradual warming sit thresholds that, once crossed, commit the system to large changes over centuries — several within reach near 1.5°C.

Greenland ice sheet

~1.5°C — ~7m sea level over centuries

West Antarctic ice sheet

~1.5°C — ~3-5m sea level over centuries

Warm-water coral reefs

~1.5°C — Near-total loss; fisheries collapse

Amazon rainforest dieback

~3.5°C — Savannization; carbon release; regional drying

Permafrost thaw

~1.5°C+ — Methane & CO₂ feedback; self-amplifying

AMOC ocean circulation

~4°C (uncertain) — European cooling, monsoon disruption

Why it's the master lever

Coupling

Global warming is the forcing function beneath most of the index. The same fossil combustion that warms the planet emits the PM₂.₅ that pollutes the air, and the warming it drives intensifies heat, drought, sea-level rise and crop stress simultaneously. It is the rare lever where one action — decarbonization — bends many curves at once.

Because warming sits upstream of heat, water, sea-level and much of pollution, decarbonization is the one action that bends multiple curves at once. See how the downstream heat plays out in the heat dashboard, and how mitigation sequences in the framework.